Real-world examples of historical returns of popular index funds

When people ask for examples of historical returns of popular index funds, they usually mean, “If I had just bought the basic market index and left it alone, what would I have earned?” So let’s start with the workhorse of index investing: the S&P 500.

To keep this readable, I’ll use well-known, long-running funds as real examples, and focus on annualized (compound) returns through roughly mid‑2024. Exact numbers vary slightly by source and end date, but the story is consistent.

Note: Data below is based on fund sponsor performance pages and independent databases like Morningstar as of 2024. For current figures, always check the fund provider’s site (e.g., Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab).

S&P 500 index funds: classic example of long-term U.S. stock returns

If you want a clean example of historical returns of popular index funds, you start with S&P 500 index funds. Two of the best examples:

• Vanguard 500 Index Fund (VFIAX / VOO) – tracks the S&P 500
• Fidelity 500 Index Fund (FXAIX) – also tracks the S&P 500

While tickers and expense ratios differ, their long-run performance is almost identical because they track the same benchmark.

Long-term S&P 500 index returns (approximate, through mid‑2024)

Using the S&P 500 as a proxy (total return, including dividends, before fees):

• 10-year annualized return: about 10–11% per year
• 20-year annualized return: about 9–10% per year
• 30-year annualized return: about 9–10% per year

Vanguard’s own long-term data for the Vanguard 500 Index Fund shows very similar results, with tiny differences due to expenses and tracking error.

You can verify long-run S&P 500 returns via:

• The Federal Reserve and related research data: https://fred.stlouisfed.org
• Historical return studies from academic sources like NYU Stern (Damodaran): https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/

What these S&P 500 examples really tell you

These examples of historical returns of popular index funds highlight a few realities:

• Returns are lumpy, not smooth. The 2010s were spectacular; the 2000–2009 period was flat to negative for U.S. large caps.
• Your experience depends heavily on start date. Someone starting in 1999 saw a lost decade followed by a big rebound. Someone starting in 2010 saw mostly strong gains.
• Low costs matter. An S&P 500 index fund with a 0.03% fee will typically beat most actively managed large-cap mutual funds over 10–20 years simply by charging less.

In other words, the S&P 500 is one of the cleanest examples of historical returns of popular index funds that show why broad, low-cost exposure beat the majority of active managers.

Total U.S. stock market index funds: broader coverage, similar story

Another best example of historical returns of popular index funds is the total U.S. stock market index fund. Instead of just the 500 largest companies, these funds own thousands, including mid and small caps.

Two widely used funds:

• Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSAX / VTI)
• Schwab U.S. Broad Market ETF (SCHB)

Because U.S. large caps dominate the market by size, long-term returns for total market funds and S&P 500 funds are very close.

Approximate long-term returns (through mid‑2024)

Using Vanguard’s VTSAX/VTI as a guide:

• 10-year annualized return: about 10–11%
• 20-year annualized return: roughly 9–10%

Sometimes the total market slightly outperforms (when smaller companies do well), and sometimes it slightly underperforms. Over decades, the gap has been modest.

Why these total-market examples matter for index vs. mutual fund debates

When investors compare index funds vs. actively managed mutual funds, these total-market funds are some of the best examples to look at. They:

• Hold virtually the entire U.S. equity market in one vehicle.
• Have very low fees (often under 0.05%).
• Consistently land in the top tier of their category over 10-, 15-, and 20-year periods because most active managers can’t overcome their higher costs.

For a data-driven view of how index funds stack up against active mutual funds, the S&P SPIVA scorecards are worth reading: https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/research-insights/spiva/. They show, in cold numbers, how often low-cost index funds outperform active funds over long horizons.

International stock index funds: real examples beyond the U.S.

If you’re building a diversified portfolio, you don’t stop at U.S. stocks. Here are some real examples of historical returns of popular index funds that track international markets:

• Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund (VTIAX / VXUS) – developed + emerging markets outside the U.S.
• iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF (IEFA) – developed markets outside the U.S. (Europe, Australasia, Far East)
• Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund (VEMAX / VWO) – emerging markets only

How have international index funds done?

Using Vanguard’s international funds as a rough guide through mid‑2024:

• Vanguard Total International (VTIAX)
  • 10-year annualized return: roughly 4–6%
• Vanguard Emerging Markets (VEMAX)
  • 10-year annualized return: often in the 2–5% range, with big swings

Compared with the S&P 500’s 10–11% over the same period, these examples of historical returns of popular index funds show how U.S. stocks dominated the 2010s and early 2020s.

But if you zoom out to longer periods, international stocks have had stretches where they outperformed the U.S. The lesson: international index funds can lag for a decade and then suddenly lead. They add diversification, but they also test your patience.

For long-term global market data, academic and institutional research from places like Harvard Business School and other universities (e.g., https://www.hbs.edu) often analyze international return histories and diversification effects.

Bond index funds: steady but quieter examples of historical returns

Historical return conversations tend to obsess over stocks, but bond index funds provide some of the most instructive examples of historical returns of popular index funds—especially for risk management.

Popular options include:

• Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund (VBTLX / BND) – broad U.S. investment-grade bond market
• Schwab U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (SCHZ) – similar benchmark

Approximate long-term bond index returns (through mid‑2024)

Using the U.S. Aggregate Bond Index as a proxy:

• 10-year annualized return: roughly 2–3%
• 20-year annualized return: around 3–4%

The last decade (2014–2024) has been tough for bonds: ultralow yields followed by sharp rate hikes in 2022–2023 led to negative calendar-year returns in some years. That said, over multi-decade periods, bond index funds have:

• Delivered lower returns than stocks, but
• Provided much lower volatility and drawdowns

For investors comparing index funds vs. mutual funds in the bond space, these bond index funds are real examples where low costs and broad diversification often beat many active bond funds over 10+ years.

Mixed portfolios: 60/40 and 80/20 index fund examples

Most people don’t hold 100% stocks or 100% bonds. They mix them. So let’s look at examples of historical returns of popular index funds in simple blended portfolios, using U.S. total stock and total bond index funds as building blocks.

Consider two hypothetical portfolios rebalanced annually:

• 80/20 portfolio – 80% U.S. total stock index (VTSAX), 20% U.S. total bond index (VBTLX)
• 60/40 portfolio – 60% U.S. total stock index, 40% U.S. total bond index

Using long-run historical data and approximations from Vanguard’s tools and independent backtests through mid‑2024:

• Over 20+ years, the 80/20 portfolio has typically returned around 8–9% per year.
• The 60/40 portfolio has generally returned around 7–8% per year.

These are not official numbers, but they line up with what you’ll see if you run backtests using:

• U.S. stock market index history (around 9–10% long term)
• U.S. bond market index history (around 3–4% long term)

These blended portfolios are some of the most practical examples of historical returns of popular index funds because they reflect what real investors actually hold. They also show how adding bonds:

• Reduces volatility and drawdowns
• Smooths out the ride during crashes like 2008 and 2020
• Still delivers solid long-term growth, especially in the 60/40 mix

Index funds vs. actively managed mutual funds: what the data says

If you’re comparing index funds vs. mutual funds, you want real examples that show how often index funds win. That’s where independent scorecards come in.

The SPIVA (S&P Indices Versus Active) reports track how many active mutual funds beat their benchmarks over time. The findings are consistent across decades:

• Over 10- and 20-year periods, a large majority of active U.S. equity funds underperform their benchmark index after fees.
• The same pattern holds in many international and bond categories.

You can read the latest SPIVA reports here:

• https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/research-insights/spiva/

This is why the best examples of historical returns of popular index funds are not just about raw performance; they highlight how low fees and broad diversification stack the odds in your favor compared with higher-cost active mutual funds.

Behavioral reality: investor returns vs. fund returns

One more nuance that matters when looking at examples of historical returns of popular index funds: the difference between fund returns and investor returns.

Even with index funds, many investors:

• Chase performance after a strong run
• Sell in panic during bear markets
• Hold too much cash for too long

Research from firms like Morningstar has repeatedly shown that investor dollar‑weighted returns often lag the official time‑weighted returns of the very same funds. In other words, the fund might deliver 9% per year, but the average investor in that fund only earns 6–7% because of poor timing.

This is where index funds shine in another way: their simplicity and low turnover make it psychologically easier to set a plan, automate contributions, and stick with it. The historical data shows that the investors who captured the full power of these examples of historical returns of popular index funds were the ones who stayed invested through ugly markets.

Key takeaways from real examples of historical index fund returns

Pulling this together, here’s what these examples of historical returns of popular index funds tell you:

• Broad U.S. stock index funds (S&P 500, total market) have historically delivered around 9–10% annualized over long periods, but with very deep, temporary drawdowns.
• International index funds have been more volatile and, in the last decade, have lagged the U.S., but they still play a diversification role.
• Bond index funds have delivered modest but steadier returns, smoothing out portfolio volatility.
• Simple blended portfolios like 60/40 or 80/20 using index funds have produced attractive long-term results that are hard for most actively managed mutual funds to beat after fees and taxes.

None of this guarantees future results. But if you’re weighing index funds vs. mutual funds, these real examples show why many investors default to a low-cost, diversified index fund core and only use active strategies around the edges, if at all.

FAQ: examples of historical returns of popular index funds

What are some classic examples of historical returns of popular index funds?

Some of the clearest examples include:

• Vanguard 500 Index (VFIAX/VOO) and Fidelity 500 Index (FXAIX) – roughly 9–10% annualized over 20–30 years.
• Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTSAX/VTI) – similar long-term performance to the S&P 500, around 9–10%.
• Vanguard Total Bond Market (VBTLX/BND) – roughly 3–4% annualized over 20 years, with much lower volatility.

These are widely cited examples of historical returns of popular index funds when investors compare index funds vs. mutual funds.

Can you give an example of how $10,000 would have grown in an S&P 500 index fund?

Using long-run S&P 500 total return data, \(10,000 invested and left alone for 30 years at about 9–10% annualized would grow to somewhere in the \)130,000–$170,000 range. That’s not a guarantee, but it’s a realistic example based on historical returns of popular index funds tracking the S&P 500.

Are there examples where actively managed mutual funds beat index funds long term?

Yes, there are individual examples of active mutual funds that have beaten index funds over 10–20 years. But SPIVA reports show that these are the minority, and it’s hard to identify them in advance. When you look at broad statistics, the best examples of historical returns of popular index funds show that low-cost index funds outperform most active funds in the same category over long horizons.

How have international index funds compared to U.S. index funds historically?

Historically, leadership has rotated. In recent decades, U.S. index funds like VTSAX and VFIAX have outperformed many international index funds. But if you look back to earlier periods, there were long stretches when international markets led. That’s why many model portfolios include both, using examples of historical returns of popular index funds from multiple regions to build a more diversified mix.

Where can I find updated data for these historical return examples?

For the most recent numbers, check directly with fund providers and reputable data sources:

• Vanguard performance pages: https://investor.vanguard.com
• Fidelity and Schwab fund pages
• Academic and research sites like NYU Stern and SPIVA: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/ and https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/research-insights/spiva/

Those sources keep the examples of historical returns of popular index funds updated as new data comes in.